Climate 2025 – Trump 2.0 and Climate Tech: Weighing Economic Goals Against Emission Concerns
As renewed discussions arise over President-elect Donald Trump’s energy policies (Donald Trump 2024), the focus is shifting to how his agenda could impact the environment. Covering areas from nuclear energy to expanded oil and gas production, Trump’s policies aim to bolster U.S. energy independence and drive economic growth. However, the implications for climate change and carbon emissions are complex. Here, we examine the potential Trump climate impact in 2025.
Fossil Fuel Revival: The Push for Oil, Gas, and Coal
Trump’s policies emphasize traditional energy sources, which could significantly increase U.S. CO₂ emissions.
A central focus of Trump’s energy policy is the expansion of oil and gas production. His administration plans to ramp up drilling on federal lands and offshore areas, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign energy. While this could strengthen U.S. energy security, it also risks a substantial rise in carbon emissions as fossil fuels remain a dominant part of the energy mix.
The U.S. is already among the world’s largest emitters of CO₂, behind only China, though national greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by about 10% since 2005, with a 27% reduction in power sector emissions over that period, as noted by the EPA (US EPA 2020). However, in contrast, global emissions increased by almost 24% from 2005 to 2018, with rapid growth in countries like China and India. China surpassed the US as the world’s largest emitter in 2006 (Prater 2023), and at the current rate of growth, India’s emissions are expected to surpass those of the United States around 2035 (Worldometer 2023). If the U.S. expands fossil fuel production and reliance, it risks reversing this downward trend, potentially diminishing the gains achieved in recent years and impacting its global emissions ranking.
Another Trump priority is revitalizing the coal industry, one of the most carbon-intensive energy sources. Trump’s plan includes rolling back restrictions that have previously hampered coal operations. Since coal generates far more CO₂ per unit of energy than other sources, a resurgence in coal use could drive up national emissions, undermining progress made by cleaner energy alternatives.
Furthermore, Trump’s policies propose reducing regulatory restrictions on fossil fuel infrastructure, accelerating projects like pipelines. While streamlined permits may speed up energy production, they could also lead to increased fossil fuel consumption, further escalating emissions.
Slowing Down Renewables: Impact of Ending Support
Trump’s approach also includes ending federal subsidies for renewable energy sources like wind and solar. These subsidies have played a key role in lowering the cost of renewables, making them competitive with traditional energy sources. Without federal support, the growth of renewable energy could slow, leading to increased reliance on fossil fuels and making it more challenging for the U.S. to meet emission reduction targets.
Additionally, Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord could hinder long-term efforts to reduce emissions. By exiting the agreement, the U.S. would no longer be committed to internationally agreed-upon climate targets, diminishing its motivation to cut emissions. This shift away from global climate leadership could also undermine international cooperation on climate initiatives, and embolden other nations to chart a similar course.
A Silver Lining: Trump’s Support for Low-Emission Alternatives
Despite these concerns, Trump’s energy agenda does contain certain policies that support low-emission energy options, which, if implemented effectively, could have positive environmental impacts.
One notable component of Trump’s agenda is his support for nuclear energy. Trump’s plan emphasizes nuclear power as a “clean, reliable source of power” and proposes modernizing regulations to accelerate the development of next-generation reactors. When managed safely, nuclear energy offers a low-emission alternative to fossil fuels, providing substantial power without the high carbon emissions associated with coal or natural gas plants.
In addition to supporting nuclear power, Trump has emphasized the role of America’s dams and hydroelectric power as vital to the nation’s clean energy future. As one of the most reliable sources of emission-free electricity, hydropower could see renewed investment under Trump’s policies, focusing on modernizing existing dams and advancing new projects to expand low-carbon energy generation and diversify the clean energy mix.
Trump’s policy also places significant attention on carbon capture technology. By supporting carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives, his administration aims to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel sources like natural gas, capturing carbon before it reaches the atmosphere. Although CCS technology is still developing, it is widely used in the oil industry for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Trump’s policy suggests a substantial investment in making it a viable tool within the U.S. energy landscape, potentially helping to mitigate emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial sites.
Boosting Innovation: Opportunities for Climate Tech Companies under Trump
Trump’s policy agenda also includes regulatory and tax incentives that could indirectly support cleaner technologies by encouraging the growth of energy startups and climate tech companies.
A key element is streamlined permitting. By reducing regulatory delays, Trump aims to accelerate energy and infrastructure projects, which could allow climate tech companies to bring their solutions to market more quickly. Shorter permitting processes mean lower project costs and faster timelines—benefits that are crucial for smaller companies developing innovative energy solutions. Additionally, tax incentives that promote business investment could enable companies to channel more funds toward research, expansion, and low-emission technology development.
Trump’s emphasis on domestic energy production could further benefit climate tech firms focused on energy efficiency and renewable alternatives. By prioritizing energy independence, his agenda may increase demand for domestic technologies that reduce waste and improve efficiency, potentially creating new partnership and expansion opportunities for climate tech startups.
While the U.S. ranks second globally in overall CO₂ emissions, it ranks 14th in per capita emissions and 113th in terms of annual percentage increase (Worldometer 2023). This context underscores that, while the U.S. remains a significant emitter in absolute terms, its emissions have grown more slowly than many other countries’, even as it continues to pursue fossil fuel expansion. This slower growth rate can be attributed to factors such as increased energy efficiency, a gradual shift from coal to natural gas, and investments in renewable energy, which have helped offset some of the emissions from fossil fuel use.
Historical Context: Emission Trends during Trump’s First Term
Despite a trend toward deregulation, U.S. energy-related CO₂ emissions declined during Trump’s first term, largely due to market forces and a significant reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic. While emissions rebounded as economic activity resumed, 2021-2 levels remained notably lower than in 2018, indicating some lasting structural changes in energy use and efficiency.
During this period, a shift from coal to natural gas was a major factor, with natural gas production reaching record levels due to advancements in shale extraction. Since natural gas emits significantly less CO₂ than coal, this transition contributed to the overall emissions decline. Growth in renewable energy, supported by declining costs and advances in wind and solar technology, also helped reduce emissions.
Additional reductions came from energy efficiency improvements in vehicles and buildings, supported by earlier policies. These trends allowed the U.S. economy to decouple growth from traditional energy consumption, continuing to expand without a parallel increase in emissions.
Elon Musk’s Influence on the Trump Climate Impact
Elon Musk, a close advisor to Trump, has shared nuanced views on energy and climate change that may shape aspects of Trump’s environmental policy. In a recent podcast with Trump (Donald J Trump 2024), Musk emphasized the importance of striking a balance between economic growth and sustainable energy. He spoke of gradually transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, cautioning against alarmism and avoiding blame on oil and gas. Musk believes in moving away from carbon-heavy fuels without vilifying them, suggesting instead a pragmatic approach that encourages sustainable alternatives.
Musk has also highlighted the decreasing costs of renewable energy (Zuby 2023), noting that solar and wind, combined with batteries, are becoming increasingly cost-effective. He advocates for decentralized power generation, such as solar batteries, which eliminate the need for high-power transmission lines. His approach aligns with a vision for local, community-based energy generation—better suited to modern economic needs.
Musk’s insights reflect a long-term view where economic and environmental goals are not at odds, and where innovation and gradual change pave the way to a sustainable energy future. His influence could lead to Trump’s policies incorporating elements that prioritize gradual, market-driven shifts rather than drastic policy changes.
Conclusion: A Balancing Act for the Future of U.S. Energy
Trump’s energy policies present a mixed outlook for the environment. On one hand, the renewed focus on fossil fuel production, the rollback of renewable energy subsidies, and the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement pose significant risks to emission reduction progress. On the other hand, support for nuclear and hydroelectric power, as well as carbon capture technology could aid in reducing emissions, while business-friendly policies might help climate tech companies bring innovative solutions to market.
The ultimate impact of Trump’s policies will depend on how these competing elements unfold. As the energy landscape continues to evolve, balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability remains a critical challenge for the U.S.
James White PhD and Joseph Moniodis PhD | 14th November 2024
Citation: James White and Joseph Moniodis. 2024. “Climate 2025 – Trump 2.0 and Climate Tech: Weighing Economic Goals Against Emission Concerns.” Carbon Critical. https://carbon-critical.com/climate-2025-trump-2-0-and-climate-tech/
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